Indonesia’s swing to China
As Leo Suryadinata and Siwage Dharma Negara note, the ongoing war in Gaza has clearly turned Indonesians against US foreign policy actions. When asked if the Association of Southeast Asian Nations “were forced to align itself with one of the strategic rivals, which should it choose?”, 73% of Indonesian respondents selected China while only 27% preferred the US. This is a significant shift from 2023, when 54% of Indonesian respondents nominated China and 46% sided with the US. Beijing is sensing the winds of change. During his meetings with outgoing leader Joko Widodo Thursday, Wang denounced the US for blocking United Nations resolutions calling for a ceasefire in Gaza. Not a new line for the Chinese, but their vocal support has not gone unnoticed in Southeast Asia, home to two sizeable Muslim majority nations: Indonesia and Malaysia. These countries want to see see more global leadership on an issue that has stoked outrage across their communities. Managing Indonesia’s interests against the backdrop of the US-China rivalry will be a key task for Prabowo when he takes on his new job this October.
Source: CEIC
He has had a mercurial approach to navigating Beijing, and has flip-flopped on whether he sees the nation as friend or foe. This is a clever strategy and in line with Indonesia’s bebas-aktif, or free and active foreign policy, that’s likely to continue under the new president. China is an important source of foreign investment for Indonesia — coming in only second to Singapore — and it is also the largest trading partner.
Source: Bloomberg